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18.01.2011
 
Expected Rate of Inflation Derived from the Capital Market, Forecasters' Inflation Expectations, and the M1 Money Supply
 
For an explanation of how the expectations are calculated - Click here
 
  Expected inflation rate (percent) M1 money supply
Calculated from capital marketa Average inflation forecastsb 12 months forward Average monthly balance (NIS billion) Rate of change (percent)
For first year For second year For third year and after Monthly Previous 12 monthsc
Annual data: dd              
2002 2.2 3.8 5.4 2.6 30.6 2.7 4.9
2003 0.7 2.6 2.8 2.0 33.0 1.7 7.7
2004 1.4 1.9 3.5 2.1 38.9 1.3 18.0
2005 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.1 48.2 3.0 23.8
2006 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.9 52.1 4.6 8.3
2007 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.0 61.2 2.0 17.4
2008 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 71.9 3.9 17.4
2009 1.8 2.6 2.5 1.8 109.5 -0.5 52.3
2010 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 113.9 2.3 4.1
               
Monthly data: ee              
2009              
January 0.6 1.2 2.4 0.3 74.5 3.6 23.4
February 0.8 1.8 2.3 0.5 80.3 7.8 32.8
March 0.7 1.7 2.3 0.6 86.3 7.5 40.9
April 0.8 1.9 2.5 1.1 95.2 10.3 49.1
May 2.1 3.0 2.4 1.8 97.9 2.9 54.7
June 2.4 3.1 2.5 2.4 100.2 2.3 56.3
July 2.4 3.3 2.5 2.6 103.8 3.6 56.0
August 2.4 3.4 2.6 2.5 110.5 6.5 64.5
September 2.3 3.0 2.5 2.3 110.5 0.0 61.7
October 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.4 108.6 -1.7 54.2
November 2.5 3.1 2.6 2.6 110.0 1.3 59.0
December 2.5 3.2 2.6 2.7 109.5 -0.5 52.3
2010              
January 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.5 107.4 -1.9 44.2
February 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.1 105.5 -1.8 31.3
March 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.4 107.8 2.2 24.9
April 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 110.2 2.2 15.8
May 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 111.3 1.0 13.7
June 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 110.3 -0.9 10.1
July 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.0 113.2 2.6 9.0
August 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 112.3 -0.7 1.7
September 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.9 113.8 1.3 3.0
October 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.9 113.0 -0.7 4.1
Novemberf 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 111.3 -1.5 1.2
Decemberf 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.9 113.9 2.3 4.1
current figureg 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.0      
 
a Inflation expectations are defined as the rate of inflation that would make the yields on indexed and unindexed government bonds equal (break-even inflation); they include an inflation-risk premium. An explanation for how the expectations are calculated is available at the following address: http://bankisrael.gov.il/deptdata/monetar/m1_exp_e.pdf
b Simple arithmetic mean of the inflation forecasts of the commercial banks and economic consultancy companies that publish their forecasts on a regular basis.
c The percentage change in the level in the current month compared with the level in the equivalent month in the previous year.
d Annual data: expected inflation rateannual averages; M1 money supplyDecember averages.
e Monthly data: monthly averages
f Money supply data are preliminary data.
  Average for the index month (from 16th of previous month to 15th of current month).
g Expectations derived from the capital marketaverage of the CPI month (i.e., from the 16th of the previous month to the 15th of the current month). Forecastsaverage of forecasts updated after the publication of the CPI.