The index is a synthetic cyclical indicator for examining the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated from the monthly changes in seven components that reflect different aspects of real economic activity, i.e., the indices of manufacturing production; imports of consumer goods; imports of production inputs; trade and services revenue; the number of employee posts in the business sector; exports of goods (excluding agriculture, fuel, diamonds, and ships and aircraft) and exports of services (tourism, computer and know-how, communications, insurance, and other business services).
The Index format consists of two elements: (1) the long-term growth rate (the middle line in the index), calculated from the linear combination of the trend of its components, and (2) the short-term movements of the index--the acceleration/slowdown relative to the long-term growth rate (growth cycles), calculated using a non-linear Markov-switching model (For details see the Working paper).